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China has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.