Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
